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What is this site?
This site is just the hub to find all my relevant publications online.
You can find my recent writing and my stream of consciousness and short-term commentary on Substack and X (the cesspit formerly known as Twitter):
Substack
Who the hell is Ivan Cryptoslav? Why should I care?
Short version:
I'm a speculator and polyglot writing about predictions, current events, and crypto. Subscribe to improve your own decision-making with insightful, engaging, and witty analysis from someone with skin in the game.
Long version:
I write about those current events in crypto, macro, and geopolitics, where I think I can add signal to the noise. Since I trade both crypto and prediction markets, my analyses are backed up by skin in the game. That means:
- I am open and sincere about topics, where I don't think I can add valuable or information.
- When I get something wrong, which happens constantly, I admit to being wrong and analyze why that happened. The market humbles all of us.
My writing reflects my character: balanced and nuanced takes that seek wisdom but do not take themselves too seriously.
I strive to generate a small eureka effect for the reader with each of my articles. Ideally, you will go from being curious to having your curiosity satisfied in an entertaining manner.
If you can say 'That was fun' and 'I learned something I didn't know', I succeeded.
Ok but seriously, who are you?
- A globetrotter: I lived for 6 months or more in many different countries (Germany, Austria, Russia, UK, Ireland, Czechia, Thailand, Kazakhstan) and visited a bunch of others.
- A polyglot: I speak five languages fluently (DE, EN, RU, CRO, ES).
- A cynical crypto maxi: I got into crypto for good in 2020 after being curious about it in 2017. I realize it's all bullshit and a scam. But scams pump the hardest as we say in crypto, so I just submit to the structural forces and the narrative and I'm all-in on crypto.
- A nerd: I studied politics, international relations, and macroeconomics at a bunch of unis (LMU Munich, UCL London, HSE Moscow). Never attended any of my three graduation ceremonies though, so my relationship with academia is ambiguous.
- A bon vivant: Let's just say I enjoy the finer things in life just as much as charts. André Kostolany is someone in this profession that I admire.
What I endorse:
- Phronesis: A concept I strongly identify with. Citing Wikipedia: "In Ancient Greek philosophy, Phronesis (is a type of wisdom or intelligence concerned with practical action. It implies both good judgment and excellence of character and habits."
- Sophrosyne: Another concept I strongly identify with. Wikipedia again: "Sophrosyne is an ancient Greek concept of an ideal of excellence of character and soundness of mind, which when combined in one well-balanced individual leads to other qualities, such as temperance, moderation, prudence, purity, decorum, and self-control."
- Individual freedom: I have grown less libertarian over the years. But I still consider that implicit rules trump explicit rules and any rule that can be removed, should be removed.
- Long-termism: we should be focusing not on "winning the game" but improving the conditions of play for the next set of players. Evidence of how beneficial building things for the long run is all around us. We need more of that.
- Technological progress guided by wisdom: technological progress has and will continue to elevate humanity to heights previously thought impossible. But if it isn't guided by wisdom, it could also destroy us.
- The Pareto principle: the 80/20 rule is all around us. Some things in life require complete mastery but the majority – dare I say 80 percent of them – can be optimized with the Pareto rule.
- Gym, clean eating, and inner development: I'm not an expert and not even a knowledgeable amateur when it comes to fitness, a healthy diet, and meditation. But I am consistent with all three and it has worked well for me.
- Beautiful women: what did you think bon vivant means? Frankly, if you don't endorse beautiful women, you went off-track somewhere son.
- Memes:
What I disavow:
- For and against the current thing-ers: the current thing used to be Me Too/woke/COVID/[insert liberal insanity]. Now the current thing is illegal migrants/the mainstream media/transgenders/[insert right-wing insanity]. The current thing is often a good heuristic for cunning people using the masses to advance another agenda.
- People who outsource their sense-making: if you're in a group and everyone agrees about everything, that isn't sense-making. It's a cult. If you cannot explain how you arrived at a conclusion, you have taken over someone else's.
- Rightoid and leftoid insanity: gender madness and Western diversity hysteria, pro and anti-transgender lunacy, Russia apologists parroting propaganda...where do I end this list? As soon as someone uses "them" in an argument, you know you are not talking to a serious person.
- Taking yourself too seriously: life's a short ride. We can and should be serious about it but we should never take ourselves too seriously.
- Living within the system: the system has lifted the yoke from the little person, but it's still systematically set up against you. Escape it if you can.
- Unhealthy, fat, stupid people: I'm not going to mince my words here. We need to go back to some ancient Greek virtues.
Ok, I'm sold. What do I do now Mr Cryptoslav Sir?
Subscribe to my Substack and follow me on X. Those are the mot relevant channels for now.
Substack